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Rethinking the Biden Era Economic Debate
A critical response to Jason Furman's "Post-Neoliberal Delusion and the Tragedy of Bidenomics," that dives into both the administration and ideas of the…
Feb 14
•
Mike Konczal
14
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Rethinking the Biden Era Economic Debate
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Racing the Tariffs: How The Election Sparked a Surge in Auto and Durable Goods Spending in Q4 2024
It wasn't just people you saw - the USA went on an auto and durable spending spree in the fourth quarter of 2024, increasing GDP, inflation, and leaving…
Feb 2
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Mike Konczal
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Racing the Tariffs: How The Election Sparked a Surge in Auto and Durable Goods Spending in Q4 2024
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January 2025
Did Remote Work Drive the Global Surge in Job Openings?
Like inflation, the historic shifting out of the Beveridge Curve was experienced across countries. One speculative reason might be the rapid expansion…
Jan 27
•
Mike Konczal
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Did Remote Work Drive the Global Surge in Job Openings?
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Did We Tame Inflation With No Economic Cost? The Sacrifice Ratio Has the Wrong Sign
Using a common method (Ball 1994) for estimating the recent output sacrifice ratio gives us a value of -0.04. That's not just small - many values are…
Jan 22
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Mike Konczal
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Did We Tame Inflation With No Economic Cost? The Sacrifice Ratio Has the Wrong Sign
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January 2024
The Three Open Questions When it Comes to Our Cost-Push Supply Shock Inflation
In which we seek to lock down better answers for everything that just happened in light of the historic disinflation of the past year.
Jan 18, 2024
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Mike Konczal
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The Three Open Questions When it Comes to Our Cost-Push Supply Shock Inflation
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December 2023
What to Expect of the Expectations Debate
Responding to Larry Summers, sharing some slides, expressing skepticism on the arguments, and setting up some terms for how people will talk about…
Dec 21, 2023
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Mike Konczal
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What to Expect of the Expectations Debate
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October 2023
Will The ‘Last Mile’ Of Inflation Be the Hardest? Three Reasons Why It May Not.
A place to organize my thoughts, debut my new inflation density app, put code somewhere, and outline some things I'm watching on the inflation front as…
Oct 25, 2023
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Mike Konczal
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Will The ‘Last Mile’ Of Inflation Be the Hardest? Three Reasons Why It May Not.
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July 2023
Inflation Came Down and Everyone Was Right
Inflation has been falling over the past year, yet, inconsistent with 'mainstream macro,' unemployment has not increased. What are some of the reasons…
Jul 14, 2023
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Mike Konczal
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Inflation Came Down and Everyone Was Right
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March 2023
A Better AEI Graphic of Inflation Over the Past 20 Years
What happens when we take the AEI graphic of items that have had high and low inflation, but extend it to all categories?
Mar 17, 2023
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Mike Konczal
15
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A Better AEI Graphic of Inflation Over the Past 20 Years
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February 2023
What Does Powell Think About Wages Now That ECI Is Near Its Trendline?
Tracing some of the consequences of one of my favorite graphics that I've been following, including for all things labor market dynamism related.
Feb 11, 2023
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Mike Konczal
5
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What Does Powell Think About Wages Now That ECI Is Near Its Trendline?
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January 2023
Do We Need a Recession Because Wages Are Too High? 5 Responses Answering No.
A survey of the universe of responses pushing back on the idea that wages are so high we need a recession to bring them down in order to tackle…
Jan 27, 2023
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Mike Konczal
4
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Do We Need a Recession Because Wages Are Too High? 5 Responses Answering No.
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June 2021
We Just Can't Quit Job Openings (and Whether Various Unemployment Measures are Moving at a Commensurable Rate Alongside Them)
A reply to Jason Furman and Wilson Powell III on their recent look at job openings and employment flows data.
Jun 30, 2021
•
Mike Konczal
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We Just Can't Quit Job Openings (and Whether Various Unemployment Measures are Moving at a Commensurable Rate Alongside Them)
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